ING Reports: Poland’s Economy Outpaces EU and Regional Peers in 3Q25
ING Reports: Poland’s Economy Outpaces EU and Regional Peers in 3Q25
November 26, 2025
Poland’s economy continued to outperform both the EU and Central and Eastern European peers in the third quarter of 2025, with GDP rising 3.7% year-on-year, according to an ING Report. The result marks an acceleration from 3.3% YoY growth in the previous quarter and stands well above rates seen in Czechia (2.7%), Hungary (0.6%), and the EU average (1.5%).
A detailed breakdown of GDP components will be published on 1 December, but available data suggest moderate improvement in industrial activity, a slight slowdown in retail trade, and a continued downturn in construction. Economists estimate that the services sector remained a key growth driver, even if activity was somewhat softer than hoped.
Consumption Drives Growth as Investment Rebound Lags
On the expenditure side, robust household consumption again played a central role in supporting growth, with spending likely rising at a similar pace to earlier in the year. However, the anticipated rebound in investment has been delayed, in part due to the slow rollout and revision of projects financed by Poland’s Recovery and Resilience Fund.
Despite these investment setbacks, economists maintain their full-year forecast of 3.5% GDP growth, citing stronger-than-expected private consumption:
“We still expect 3.5% GDP growth in Poland this year. Data released so far shows that the scenario of much stronger fixed investment performance this year is not materialising, but it is compensated by the resilience of private consumption, which is proving to be stronger than expected earlier. The timeline of RFF execution gives ground for optimistic forecasts of fixed investment in 2026.”
Poland Continues to Outpace CEE Peers Despite Weaker European Manufacturing
Poland’s economy remains notable against a backdrop of persistent weakness in European manufacturing. The country continues to avoid major internal or external imbalances: the current account deficit stands near 1% of GDP, and inflation is close to the National Bank of Poland’s 2.5% target.
In conclusion, economic activity is projected to remain strong through next year, with GDP expected to grow 3.5% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, keeping Poland among the fastest-growing economies in the region.
ING Reports: Poland’s Economy Outpaces EU and Regional Peers in 3Q25
Poland’s economy continued to outperform both the EU and Central and Eastern European peers in the third quarter of 2025, with GDP rising 3.7% year-on-year, according to an ING Report. The result marks an acceleration from 3.3% YoY growth in the previous quarter and stands well above rates seen in Czechia (2.7%), Hungary (0.6%), and the EU average (1.5%).
A detailed breakdown of GDP components will be published on 1 December, but available data suggest moderate improvement in industrial activity, a slight slowdown in retail trade, and a continued downturn in construction. Economists estimate that the services sector remained a key growth driver, even if activity was somewhat softer than hoped.
Consumption Drives Growth as Investment Rebound Lags
On the expenditure side, robust household consumption again played a central role in supporting growth, with spending likely rising at a similar pace to earlier in the year. However, the anticipated rebound in investment has been delayed, in part due to the slow rollout and revision of projects financed by Poland’s Recovery and Resilience Fund.
Despite these investment setbacks, economists maintain their full-year forecast of 3.5% GDP growth, citing stronger-than-expected private consumption:
Poland Continues to Outpace CEE Peers Despite Weaker European Manufacturing
Poland’s economy remains notable against a backdrop of persistent weakness in European manufacturing. The country continues to avoid major internal or external imbalances: the current account deficit stands near 1% of GDP, and inflation is close to the National Bank of Poland’s 2.5% target.
In conclusion, economic activity is projected to remain strong through next year, with GDP expected to grow 3.5% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026, keeping Poland among the fastest-growing economies in the region.
Read More: www.think.ing.com
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