EY expects Poland’s economy to expand by 3.9% in 2026, three times the rate forecast for the eurozone. The EY European Economic Outlook places Poland as the fastest-growing major economy in the European Union, against a eurozone forecast of 1.2% for the same year.

What did EY forecast for Poland in 2026?

EY forecasts real GDP growth of 3.9% for Poland in 2026, up from 3.6% in 2025, and describes Poland as the fastest-growing large economy in Europe. The August edition expects growth to slow toward 2.5–2.7% in 2027 and 2028 as EU transfers and fiscal support taper off.

Poland moves against the European trend rather than with it. EY forecasts 1.2% growth for the eurozone excluding Ireland in 2026, rising only to 1.3% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. The distance between Poland and the European average is the story here, and it holds across the whole forecast horizon.

How does Poland compare with the rest of Europe?

Poland leads every large European economy in the EY 2026 forecast. Among the bigger markets only Spain, at 2.7%, comes close. Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner, is forecast to grow 0.9% in 2026 — three percentage points below Poland.

Poland is not alone in its region, but the regional picture is uneven. EY groups Poland with Slovenia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Serbia as CEE economies growing at around 3–4% year on year. Czechia, Croatia and Hungary sit at 1.5–2.0%, Slovakia is near stagnation, and Romania is contracting. From 2027, EY expects CEE growth to settle in a 2–3% range.

What is driving Poland’s growth?

Poland’s 2026 forecast rests on domestic demand rather than a single sector. EY points to real income gains, NextGenerationEU funding and defense investment. The broader breakdown covers four components: private consumption, public expenditure, investment activity and export demand — a spread that makes the forecast less dependent on any one of them holding up.

That breadth matters for a foreign employer. An economy growing on consumption alone expands retail and services. An economy growing on investment and public expenditure expands infrastructure, industrial capacity and the engineering headcount that supports both.

What does EY expect for inflation and interest rates in Poland?

EY expects inflation in Poland to stay close to 2.5%, with low food inflation offsetting higher fuel and core prices. EY also expects the National Bank of Poland to hold the reference rate at 3.75% through 2026, because core inflation is projected to rise toward 3.5%. Rate cuts become possible in 2027.

For a foreign employer, that combination is the practical takeaway. Inflation near 2.5% and a stable policy rate point to a wage environment that is easier to budget 12 months ahead than the 2022–2023 period allowed. Eurozone inflation, by comparison, is forecast at 2.8% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. What does this mean for companies who thinks about entering the Polish market?

Is 2026 a good moment for a foreign company to enter the Polish market?

The EY forecast describes conditions that favour market entry: 3.9% growth in 2026, inflation near 2.5%, a central bank on hold at 3.75%, and investment rising 8.4% year on year in Q2 2026. A company setting up in Poland in 2026 enters a growing market with a cost base that is currently predictable rather than one it has to chase.

Timing matters in a specific way here. EY expects Polish growth to slow toward 2.5–2.7% in 2027 and 2028 as NextGenerationEU funding tapers. Companies that establish a legal entity, a branch or an employment footprint during the 2026 investment cycle build their team while the labour market is still expanding capacity, instead of competing for the same engineers in a slower year. Entities set up in 2026 also start operating inside a market that international index providers now classify as developed, which changes how finance, banking and insurance counterparties assess the jurisdiction.

There are several ways to enter the Polish market. A company can register a legal entity or a branch. A company can use an employer of record while the team is still small. A company can also start with a remote in-house team run by a local partner, before any entity exists.

For a company weighing where to build a technology team in Europe, the 2026 outlook is a reason to look at Poland, not a reason to skip the due diligence. Forecasts move every quarter. The structural case — talent supply, EU membership, the position next to a recovering German economy — moves far more slowly, and it is the part worth checking against a specific hiring plan.

Source: ABSL Newsletter and EY

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